Friday 29 January 2016

Nightmare scenario for GAIL: American cargoes are away too expensive for Asian consumers

Calculations made by the IEA show that today's LNG prices in Asia are way below the cost at which GAIL will be acquiring its committed LNG cargoes from the US.
8At the current price, the data shows that while the upstream and liquefaction cost are covered for cargoes that could come to..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Going local: Petroleum ministry unveils plan

The government is pushing hard with its Made in India campaign in the petroleum sector.
8A draft policy paper calls for a 10% price preference to companies that can meet stipulated local content (LC) requirements in different segments of the industry.
8The idea seems to be to push foreign companies to to go for local sourcing to the point that they can take advantage of the price preference clause.
8Local content is defined as added value brought to India for supply of equipment and services in the..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Going local: Self certification will do
Going local: Is it going to fast?

Thursday 28 January 2016

Anil Ambani's LNG-based power plant in Bangladesh: Too many variables

LNG-based power is not economically viable in India as the price of power is far too high. But will, what does not work for India, work for Bangladesh?
8The Anil Ambani Group is planning to push the turbines bought for the doomed Samalkot project in Andhra Pradesh to Bangladesh for a..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

Time for Innovative thinking to resuscitate India's E&P sector: Freeing gas prices is only the first stop

The global E&P industry is in turmoil. Projects are being shelved and layoffs are occurring across just about any industry connected with the E&P business.
8In this scenario India's deepwater gas discoveries have little chance of getting to the production stage even if gas prices were to be decontrolled today.
8The low landed price of LNG -- and a further decline in the near term on account of the glut in the market -- will dictate the ceiling price that offshore gas in India can..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Time for Innovative thinking to resuscitate India's E&P sector: The PSC has to be made more flexible

Time for Innovative thinking to resuscitate India's E&P sector: ONGC should deploy its Rs 53,000 crore KG Basin investment to pick up equity oil abroad

Time for Innovative thinking to resuscitate India's E&P sector:  How Dharmendra Pradhan can make big a difference to the Indian E&P sector

Wednesday 27 January 2016

Battle of wits between PNGRB and Ministry over CCK pipeline: Who will blink first?

A battle of wits is on between the PNGRB on one hand and  BPCL and the petroleum ministry on the other over the regulator's insistence on bestowing a common carrier status on 22% spare capacity in the Cochin Coimbatore Karur petroleum product pipeline.
8While PNGRB is bent on declaring it a common carrier, HPCL has argued that the pipeline is meant to evacuate additional production from the Kochi refinery, which is expanding its capacity from 9.5 to 15.5 MMTPA..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

Exxon Mobil's 25-year projection: Oil & gas will continue playing a major role

When super major Exxon Mobil  speaks up, it is time for everyone to listen.
8The company in a new analysis has claimed that there is no reason for panic in the oil and gas industry because the long term outlook continues to be bright.
8The multinational has packed a lot of data into its prediction that oil and gas will continue to play an..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Exxon Mobil's 25-year projection: Investment will come back sooner than later
Exxon Mobil's 25-year projection: "Do not panic, emissions to fall"
Exxon Mobil's 25-year projection: Carbon pricing is the best way forward

Monday 25 January 2016

Cairn India: Uncertain times ahead

Cairn India Ltd's PAT breakeven point for its Indian operations seems to be $34/bbl and now that the price has dipped well below this mark, everything else being equal, the company would not end up with a loss in Q4, 2015-16.
8At this level of crude price in Q3, the company's cash flow was positive, with an EBITDA of Rs 665 crore, but profit after tax was a mere Rs 9 crore.
8There is now little scope for cost cutting as the..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Cairn India: Company should put off development plans
Cairn India: Agarwal calls for government "protection" but he should instead look inwards to secure his investments
Cairn India: Positive developments overwhelmed by the oil price crisis
Cairn India: Is the world's largest polymer flooding programme pumping carcinogens into the heart of Rajasthan? 

Poor response to CGD bidding round: No bids for 14 our of 34 GAs

The much touted CGD bidding round conducted by the PNGRB has turned out to be a damp squinb.
8Of the 34 geographical areas for which bids were invited, as many as 14 elicited no bids at all.
8Of the other 20, there were..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Poor response to CGD bidding round: Bids concentrated only on a few GAs
Poor response to CGD bidding round: Take the PNGRB to task

Friday 22 January 2016

Fifth oil jetty to come up at Jawahar Dweep: Rs. 811 crore investment planned

To keep up with the operational needs of Mumbai Port, the Port has identified the need for construction of an additional Oil Berth.
8The estimated project cost for the construction of an oil jetty came out to be..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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PNGRB slips into the role of a benefactor for oil & gas retirees

The PNGRB is enjoying its newfound role as benefactor. Or so it appears.?
8It has invited applications from only retired or super annuated experts from the oil & gas industry for empanelment in its panel of experts to undertake "compliance, capacity assessment and investigation activities related to petroleum..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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PNGRB slips into the role of a benefactor for oil & gas retirees: Why India treats its retirees so badly

Thursday 21 January 2016

Production data: Crude oil production dips by 1.38 percent

Crashing crude prices has not adversely impacted domestic crude production much with production in December 2015 standing at 3.07 MMT, which was just 1.38 percent lower than the planned monthly target.
8Cumulatively, crude oil production during April-December, 2015 was 27952.376 TMT which was 1.07 percent higher than target for the period and..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Production data: OIL puts up a poor show, production dips by 12.41 percent
Production data: Natural gas production dips 9.30 percent 
Production data: Private and JV production down by 6.81 percent
Production data: Strong performance by private refineries pushes output up by 3.94 percent

Looking ahead: HOEC bullish about prospects

In these depressed times, there is one E&P company which still believes that the going is good. And that is HOEC.
8Profit before tax has moved into the positive territory, growing 10 times, albeit on a very small base between Q2 and Q3 2015-16.
8The company boasts a debt free balance sheet where..http://goo.gl/WNluOb


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Looking ahead: High netbacks from marginal fields

Wednesday 20 January 2016

RIL's net margins negative in E&P busienss: Will the company go ahead with fresh investments even if gas prices are freed?

RIL's E&P business has posted an operating profit of Rs 90 crore in the third quarter of 2015-16 on revenues of a mere Rs 1,765 crore in comparison to a PBIT of Rs 242 crore on revenues of Rs 2,841 crore in the previous.

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Gas dynamics in India: India should help build as many transnational pipelines as possible, security concerns notwithstanding

This website seeks to argue that India should set aside security concerns and push through as many online or deepwater gas pipelines as possible, either from Turkmenistan or Iran or other Gulf countries.
8India in turn should build a strong network of LNG gasification terminals with a reasonable amount of spare capacity as a counterweight measure. Another purpose for which the spare capacity can be built is to assuage long term demand for gas.
8This spare capacity can then theoretically be put to..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Gas dynamics in India: Spare LNG capacity should come up in parallel with pipeline roll out
Gas dynamics in India: Spare LNG capacity can be used as a bargaining chip
Gas dynamics in India: GAIL in trouble with its US cargoes
Gas dynamics in India: Depending on floating LNG vessels to deliver committed cargoes will be a big risk for GAIL
Gas dynamics in India: Sooner than later GAIL will have to have its own fleet of vessels
Gas dynamics in India: Has the Made in India programme upset GAIL's calculations?
Gas dynamics in India: Indian shipyards capability of manufacturing LNG vessels in doubt

Tuesday 19 January 2016

Clean energy: Investment spurts despite plunge in oil prices

Clean energy investment has increased significantly in China, Africa, the US, Latin America and India in 2015.
Investments totaled up to $328.9 billion (bn), up 4% from last year..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Clean energy: Higher investments have a negative impact on crude and gas prices

Lifting of sanctions on Iran: Crude and LNG prices likely to go down further

Iran will be able to sell its oil and gas production without any restraint subsequent to the lifting of western sanctions on January 17, 2016.
8With the lifting of sanctions, 38 million barrels of oil which are in Iran’s floating oil reserves, in the Persian Gulf, will be added to the..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Lifting of sanctions on Iran: Iran can carve out a larger share of Indian market with attractive discounts
Lifting of sanctions on Iran: Iran-India pipeline project will see a revival

Sunday 17 January 2016

EIL's Made in India plan: Company to enlist equipment makers which are 100% subsidiaries of Foreign Principals

Engineers India Ltd has announced a new enlistment policy for equipment makers which are 100 per cent subsidiaries of Foreign Principals as part of Narendra Modi's Made in India campaign.
The following will be the qualification criteria for the principal..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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EIL's Made in India plan: Qualification criteria laid down

Oil outlook: It is grim all the way in 2016, says one analysis

The outlook for crude oil continues to be grim for all of 2016.
8This  is shaped by the fact that two of the world's biggest economies are showing signs of slowing down.
8The prediction is that the slump in the Chinese industrial sector will continue on account of significant over capacity while US’ exports and..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Oil outlook: Current prices are unsustainable, says another analysis
Oil outlook: Saudi Aramco's listing depresses sentiment further
Oil outlook: Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven point stands at $103/bbl
Oil outlook: Refinery sector remains protected
Oil outlook: Will driverless cares impact the demand for oil?

Thursday 14 January 2016

Crude carrier market rates likely to remain firm in 2016

The market for shipping of crude continues to witnessed looses last as carriers focus on adjusting to 2016 WS flat rates and 12-year low crude prices.
8Meanwhile orders for new carriers continue to be bouyant given that new building prices remained attractive and the prospects continue to appear bright.

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Compliance with new BS norms: MRPL first off the block

A slew of new business development opportunities will emerge out of the government's order advancing the implementation of BS-V & VI fuel emission norms to 2019-20.
8MRPL seems to be first off the block with a study on what needs to be done to make its newly revamped 15 MMTPA refinery conform to the new norms.
8What MRPL wants to do is to look at the upgradation of the treatment facilities for MS & HSD to ensure compliance..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Tuesday 12 January 2016

Gas markets in doldrums: Can spot LNG price come down to $4/mmbtu?

The LNG market is going to get bloodier before it begins to get better.
8The glut of new LNG terminals may in fact bring down the cost of spot LNG even further, perhaps to $6/mmbtu or $5 or, impossible as it may seem now, even lower.
8Now, why would prices go down lower than what they are currently? Already the Henry Hub price is already low enough, so how much lower can they go?
8But there are those who claim that new LNG suppliers may start a price war just so that they can pick up some market share.
8The attempt will be to cover the variable cost as fixed cost -- in some cases, both in upstream development and consequent LNG liquefaction terminal facilities -- is already a sunk cost.
8Any margin above the variable cost will bring in some incremental cash that will otherwise not be available if the terminal were to remain idle..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Gas markets in doldrums: Indian E&P sector will be directly hit
Gas markets in doldrums: Can GAIL be fighting for survival soon?
Gas markets in doldrums: GAIL puts off purchase of LNG ships till 2021; who should be blamed for the fiasco?
Gas markets in doldrums: Is GAIL's corporate culture to blame?
Gas markets in doldrums: Who is going to have the last laugh?
Gas markets in doldrums: Future remains bleak for $5 billion investment by ONGC-OIL in Mozambique
Gas markets in doldrums: Which way will the leadership go?

LPG sales: Data shows curbing diversion has not raised sale of commercial LPG

The LPG customer base in India is growing at an average of around 10% a year in 2015.
8The growth rate of domestic customers is 10.2% and that of commercial customers is also 10.2%.
8The serious attempt to curb illegal diversion of domestic LPG to commercial use through the direct benefit transfer scheme has not had any impact on the growth rate of commercial customers.
8The commercial customer base grew at 9.4% in..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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LPG sales: Auto LPG makes no progress
LPG sales: Is growth fast enough to make a difference?
LPG sales: Rural penetration continues to remain poor
LPG sales: Corruption in delivery system continues to remain a key issue

LPG sales: Data

Relaxation in gas taxation regime: Service tax emption sought for

GAIL continues to pursue its case for exemption of service tax on on transportation of natural gas where the seller of the gas sells as well as transports the gas till the point of delivery of the buyer and where the ownership of gas is simultaneously transferred.
8GAIL has argued that the manner of raising the sale bill (whether transportation charges or any other component are embedded in the price of gas or shown separately) does not alter the basic nature of such a contract which remains essentially a "contract for sale".
8The argument made by GAIL..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Monday 11 January 2016

Revolution in gas hydrates: Still a long time away

There has been a lot of brouhaha over the discovery of massive reserves of gas hydrates off the Indian coast.
8A preliminary estimate puts the quantum at a massive 933 TCF.
8But are these reserves likely to be tapped anytime soon?
8The answer is "no", for the technology is still at a nascent state and with current level of expertise, the cost of getting gas hydrates out will be very expensive indeed.
8Nevertheless, the consensus is that when commercial use happens, it will be as much of a disruption as shale oil and gas has been.
8Gas hydrates represent an enormous recoverable resource at least of the order of shale gas.

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Industry seeks sops in face of plummeting prices: Roots for tax breaks

With oil prices plummeting, the Indian E&P industry has stepped up its demand for a better playing field from the government.
Clarification sought on what constitutes "mineral oil"
8The industry continues to seek clarification over the definition of mineral oil, and even though this has been clarified, E&P operators are still looking for a elaboration of the term "mineral oil" under various statutes of the government.
8The NELP NIO (prior to NELP VIII) do provide for a seven year tax holiday for both crude and gas. What is more CBM NIOs do provide for a seven year holiday even though CBM is nothign but gas.
8But in the recent past the subject matter is under different interpretation and this is reportedly in deviation from the correct legal and intended positon.
8So a clarification is again being sought on whether the term "mineral oil" includes petroleum and natural gas from..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Thursday 7 January 2016

RIL's rejection of Shah Committee: Unfraid to take on government

RIL's rejection of the decision by the government to that a one-member Justice AP Shah Committee should decide on the D&M report shows the Mukesh Ambani led company as unafraid to take on the government when its interests are at stake.
8Narender Modi runs a majoritarian regime that usually does not take rejections of its decisions too kindly.
8But Ambani is a seasoned businessman and a doughty figure, traits that he has inherited from his father, when it comes to defending his own interest.

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ONGC's award of deepwater contract: Going ahead despite question mark over IRR

On a day when the price of oil has come below the $30/bbl mark and gas prices are on the slide, ONGC has announced the award of a Rs 2450 contract for the sub-sea development work for the Vashishta and S1 deepwater gas fields situated off the East Coast of India to a combine of L&T and McDermott.
8At these prices, a deepwater gas development will most possibly provide a negative return but ONGC has gone ahead with the award because it has already contracted some parts of the work -- including the building of the Odalarevu onshore terminal -- to other contractors.
8Sources were tightlipped about the cost economics of the project but the possibility is that they are in negative territory.
8An earlier estimate by ONGC had projected a IRR of around 17.5% and an NPV of Rs 500 crore at a discount factor of 14% per annum on a gas price of..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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Wednesday 6 January 2016

ONGC plans Rs 58 crore well in it's Panidhing PML

ONGC plans to drill one more exploratory well-- dubbed as PADAL-- in the Panidihing PML area in district Sivasagar,Assam.
8This area is a prolific oil and gas producer from the Pre-Barail Tura and Sylhet formations.
8In the Panidihing area, ONGC has a PML grant for a 20.65 square kilometer area with validity upto May, .2024. 
8The exploratory well has been planned to be drilled with the objective of exploring further the Pre-Barail Tura and Sylhet formations and basement.

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India's LNG deal with Qatar: Deal sends global market into a tizzy

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and petroleum minister Dharmendra Pradhan along with PLL MD Prabhat Singh have pulled off a coup by coaxing Qatar the cut the price of 7.5 MMTPA of long term LNG contract after protracted negotiations.
8The deal will see the price of LNG drop by $5/mmbtu from $12.5/mmbtu in December, 2015. The price will be around $7.5/mmbtu or less in India. This was done by changing the price formula from five-year average of crude oil prices to a three-month average, and the waiving of the penalty for LNG not taken which could have been as much as $1 billion.
8The deal has send the global LNG market into a tizzy.
8Prabhat Singh is an experienced hand in this game and he seems to have been fully backed by Pradhan to push the Qataris into a corner and force them to come up with a concession.
8There was seamless coordination between Singh, Pradhan and Modi, all of whom worked in concert to land India a good deal.
 8Negotiations were done skillfully by the Indian side - Singh had 22 meetings to arrive at..http://goo.gl/WNluOb

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