The government has launched the India Energy Security Scenarios 2047 Version 2.0 -- a predictive software tool under the ambit of NITI Ayog -- that looks at oil and gas demand, supply and possible price movements up to the year 2047 under four different scenarios.
8There is a Level 1 scenario where there is no improvement in recovery factors and no fields come into production barring the ones for which investment decisions have already been taken. The recovery factor has been assumed almost constant, that is 28% for oil and 55% for gas. Level 2 assumes some technological improvements and is called a ‘Determined Effort’ scenario allows for minor improvement in the recovery factor of 30% for oil and 60% for gas. Level 3 is an ‘Aggressive Effort’ scenario, where the recovery of 35% for oil and 70% for gas is assumed. while Level-4 is a ’Heroic Effort’ scenario where the recovery factor is 40% for oil and 80% for gas.
8What is played around with is the recovery factor while keeping the growth rate the initial in-place reserves at the historical level of 2.55%. This figure however may or may not improve depending upon the environment, regulatory regime and investments made in the E&P sector. The share of these reserves is taken as 9.5 billion tonnes of oil (40%) and that of gas at 14.25 billion tonnes (60%).
8Level 1 will eventually allow for a crude production of 34 MMT per annum in 2047, 59 MMT, 68 MMT and 78 MMT respectively under the other three scenarios.
8It is on the gas production front where the four scenarios bring about dramatic results. Annual output will be 81.5 BCM under the business as usual mode in 2047, 127.5 BCM under a determined effort basis, 170.5 BCM if an aggressive effort is put in and 224.5 BCM under the heroic effort scenario.
For more details visit indianpetroplus.com
8There is a Level 1 scenario where there is no improvement in recovery factors and no fields come into production barring the ones for which investment decisions have already been taken. The recovery factor has been assumed almost constant, that is 28% for oil and 55% for gas. Level 2 assumes some technological improvements and is called a ‘Determined Effort’ scenario allows for minor improvement in the recovery factor of 30% for oil and 60% for gas. Level 3 is an ‘Aggressive Effort’ scenario, where the recovery of 35% for oil and 70% for gas is assumed. while Level-4 is a ’Heroic Effort’ scenario where the recovery factor is 40% for oil and 80% for gas.
8What is played around with is the recovery factor while keeping the growth rate the initial in-place reserves at the historical level of 2.55%. This figure however may or may not improve depending upon the environment, regulatory regime and investments made in the E&P sector. The share of these reserves is taken as 9.5 billion tonnes of oil (40%) and that of gas at 14.25 billion tonnes (60%).
8Level 1 will eventually allow for a crude production of 34 MMT per annum in 2047, 59 MMT, 68 MMT and 78 MMT respectively under the other three scenarios.
8It is on the gas production front where the four scenarios bring about dramatic results. Annual output will be 81.5 BCM under the business as usual mode in 2047, 127.5 BCM under a determined effort basis, 170.5 BCM if an aggressive effort is put in and 224.5 BCM under the heroic effort scenario.
For more details visit indianpetroplus.com
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