Tuesday, 10 November 2015

Pipelines or pipe dreams: Will TAPI pipeline ever come up?

Turkmenistan has fired the starting pistol on the ambitious TAPI natural gas pipeline
8President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov announced he had ordered the beginning of the construction oft his end of the pipeline on November 6 during a weekly Cabinet meeting.
8The work on the Turkmen section will be done by state-run gas company Turkmengaz, which was named project consortium leader for TAPI Pipeline Company Limited in August.
8The other three countries -- Afghanistan, Pakistan and India -- had promised start of the construction too by December, 2015.
8But it is still anybody's guess on whether the pipeline -- that will have to traverse what is arguably some of the most dangerous territories in the world -- will eventually go through.
8Turkmenistan has a reason to look for another avenue to sell its gas as it has found itself in a situation where China maintains a stranglehold on its gas exports, effectively keeping Ashagabat as a client state. And with gas prices going down, China is twisting the gas rich neighbour's tail quite a bit. Similarly, Russia's Gazprom has been accused too of not paying up past dues.
8To escape the dragon's grip and Russia's intransigence, Ashagabat is building a pipeline to Azerbaijan for onward transportation of its gas to the EU. But this is a move that is implicitly opposed by Russia whose own exports of gas to the EU will then stand threatened.
8For Turkmenistan, the TAPI line is both a political and economic imperative.
8Comment: It is unlikely that the TAPI pipeline will ever be built this way. Turkmengaz does not have the technology or the muscle power to build the pipeline and there is too much of distrust between India and Pakistan for the pipeline to run through. Then there is the Taliban to handle in Afghanistan as an insolated pipeline -- even if running underground -- is not very difficult to sabotage. The oil and gas dynamics have changed too, so much so that even if Turkmenistan were to offer a stake in its gas field -- a demand put forward by some multinational consortiums in the past as a prerequisite to build the pipeline -- there will be no one coming forward at this point in time. The game has changed. So have the price economics. And even if the pipeline is viable, the risks far outweigh the benefits.

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