The latest reassessment shows that a total of over 110
MMTPA of new supply will be coming online between 2017 - 2020. For reference purposes, the website carries here an estimate of new LNG supply
by project start date spread over the next three years. Projects are expected to use both new built and existing vessels to utilize the
extra capacity coming on stream.
So far, increased demand seems to be absorbing supplies. There has been demand de-growth in some countries but made up by growth elsewhere. There are new supply flows being created now by buyers of US LNG. US volumes are expanding both vessel tonne miles and tonne time. Cheniere reported over 100 cargoes shipped to 20 countries (Q1 2017 results). Sabine Pass trains have been running consistently, save for maintenance outages. Applying the 1.77x multiplier to yet-to-deliver US FID exports (50+mtpa) would require around additional 90 LNG ships.
New projects are coming online: Despite the massive additions to LNG supply between 2017 -
2020, there are now signs of more projects coming on stream beyond 2020.
The website carries here an assessment of fresh long term supplies coming in
beyond 2020.
Clearly therefore, supplies will be built well beyond the next three years
This could mean LNG prices are likely to stay down for longer than what was earlier projected.
Clearly therefore, supplies will be built well beyond the next three years
This could mean LNG prices are likely to stay down for longer than what was earlier projected.
Demand-supply gap emerging in LNG vessels: GAIL seems to have missed the bus when it comes
to contracting for LNG vessels to ship its US LNG commitments to India at
reasonable charter hire rates.
The website carries here a projection of how future LNG vessel demand exceeds
the current order bookThe website also carries here a vessel-wise delivery schedule against vessel requirement
Average sailing distances are now growing rapidly. Detailed vessel utilization and shipping rates are carried here.
Spot fixtures over the last few months are carried here in relation to the same period over the last three years, and they show a rising trend. There are now indications that vessel rates are going to tighten and this will raise the delivery cost of GAIL's Indian LNG projects. This website also has its own daily LNG vessel charter hire rate data collected from global sources and contacts.
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