Wednesday, 23 September 2015

A review of India's gas sector: PLL must play tough and hammer through a deal with RasGas

Petronet LNG Ltd (PLL) has made it clear that the low offtake of long term LNG contracted with Qatar will continue in 2016-17 as spot prices will remain lower than long term contracts.
8The company has claimed that  the LNG prices in the spot markets declined sharply due to the declining crude prices. 
8However, the prices under the long-term contract, which have benefited the Indian consumers for the past decade, will take a longer time to align with the current market prices due to the contract price being linked to the 60-month JCC average
8This has led to a decline in the RLNG off-take by the Petronet off-takers – GAIL, IOCL and BPCL – citing low acceptability of the RLNG prices among their consumers. 
8This low off-take situation is expected to continue in the next year. 
8Company is currently "urgently working" on plans to alleviate the situation but did not specify what kind of action will be taken. "Your Company is working to mitigate impact
  of high priced LNG due to sharp decline of crude oil prices along-with off-takers GAIL, IOCL and BPCL," is all that PLL is willing admit for the time being.
8Clearly the floor price of Qatar LNG, aligned to the price of crude, has to be revised downwards for the price of long term contacts to come down and no indications are available from the company on whether the terms are being renegotiated.
8As per the terms of the agreement, PLL will have to account for take or pay arrangements as per the contract with Qatar but how exactly this is going to pan out is till not know. Clearly, PLL has to account for the outstanding payments under the take or pay head as contingent liability pending resolution of the tussle. 
8During 2014-15, the Dahej Terminal handled 154 LNG cargoes and supplied 520.78 TBTUs of re-gasified LNG in India. As many as 2666 LNG road tankers were loaded and dispatched during the year

 8Comment: It will be grossly unfair for PLL to soft-pedal its responsibility to revise the Take or Pay arrangement with RasGas for supply of LNG. The cost of gas is very low for Qatar and the bulk of the JCC-linked price elicited for the gas is sheer rent. In this context, it will not be fair to pick up Take or Pay penalties from customers and pay RasGas for the gas that has not been supplied. Many options are possible including deferred delivery. But whatever be the options, the floor price for crude linked to PLL's LNG price has to come down. Or else, given that there is ample supply of LNG in the market, RasGas should be told in no uncertain terms that the agreement stands void. Oman did the same thing with the OMIFCO JV, when they just dictated a higher price of gas despite the fact that a long term agreement was place for supply of gas at a confessional rate. Standing on niceties will not help.

For more details visit indianpetroplus.com

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