Monday, 14 September 2015

Bad news on India: Economy remains uninspiring

Despite the fact that the Indian economy is growing at a strong 7.4% in 2015 and is likely to grow at 7.6% in 2015, there are still areas of concern for those who track such indicators.
GDP growth moderated to 7.0%  y-o-y in 2Q15, falling slightly from 7.5% in the 1Q15. 
8Domestic demand has failed to pick up in any notable fashion: investment is slightly better, but consumer spending has slowed. Combined with a persistent weakness in exports, this makes for a less sanguine near-term outlook. 
8Weak expansion in output in the agricultural and mining sectors dragged down overall output. At 7.0% y-o-y, the pace of growth in the demand-side was slower than during the previous three months. 
8The benign interpretation is that the economy is continuing to advance at a healthy rate, even though efforts to boost its performance are taking longer to bear fruit. 
8The more alarmist interpretation is that, even as private demand remains sluggish, domestic demand itself is showing signs of deterioration. Regardless which of these two views is
proven right in the coming quarters, it is fair to say that, for the time being, India's economic performance remains uninspiring.

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